Des 231: P1 — Future of X

In my first assignment for Design 231, I was tasked with coming up with an insight about the future of a topic I enjoy/am interested in, using expert interviews and other various research methods to create a new perspective, based on data and intuition, that explores what a possible future might look like.

To make things easier for us, the course coordinator Hans Kim, split the process up into three distinct phases:

1. Discover and research: where we decide on a topic that is meaningful to us, and research it's history, data and precedence

2. Interview and insight gathering: where we plan and carry out interviews with experts to expand our views on the topic

3. Communicate: where we define one insight, and share it through a 3 minute video, 500 word article, and a blog post

The overall time we had for this assessment was six weeks, with each week featuring a three hour tutorial session with Hans, in order to learn more about how to make meaningful insights, as well as to check in on our progress.

This blog post will primarily focus on documenting my individual design progress across these six weeks.

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Phase 1: Discover and research

From weeks 1 - 3 of this project, I primarily focused on deciding upon, then researching, what my meaningful topic would be. I originally started with three broad topics, based on my hobbies:

1. Future of Skiing

2. Future of Movies

3. Future of Gaming

I then looked into what specific areas within these topics I could research, coming up with as many as I could.

(Image showing my all of the specific areas I could think of, within my topics to research)

After coming up with these ideas, I then chose which topic I would research, eventually deciding upon "The future of VFX". I chose this topic because I have always been interested in how movies are made, with movies being a multi-billion dollar industry and the continuous development and advancement of technology, I am extremely interested and excited about how the future of this industry will look. The reason I chose this topic over my other ideas (the future of skiing and video games) is because last night, before I went to bed, I had a video recommended to me on YouTube, showcasing the VFX behind one of my favorite shows, Netflix’s “Mindhunter”. This was extremely interesting to me as during my hours of binging the show, I never once noticed any of the CGI shown. This video gave me a new appreciation for VFX artists and the industry at large and was the primary reason for me choosing this topic.

After deciding upon my topic, I then began to thoroughly research it, looking at both it's past, as well as any new developments in this field. To help with this, I created a short timeline, covering the major moments in the history of VFX. This timeline is presented below:

Timeline:

• 1857: Oscar Rejlander creates the world's first VFX image, by combining 32 different sections of negatives into a single image

• 1895: The first ever motion picture special effect is created, when Alfred Clark, while filming a beheading scene, stopped the film right before the actress was about to be beheaded, instructed all of the extras to remain in place, and replaced the actress with a dummy before restarting filming, creating the first use of trickery in cinema. This technique (the “stop trick”) is still in use today. Around this same time, stage manager George Melies discovered the same trick

• 1914: George Melies develops and invents many other film tricks, including multiple exposures, and time-lapses. He is later referred to as the “Cinemagition”.

• 1920’s: Various special effects begin to become more common in movies, notably the 1927 science fiction film “Metropolis”, a landmark film in special effects due to its effects expert Eugene Schufftan and his newly invented “Schufftan Process” which used a specially created mirror and various miniatures to give the illusion of actors interacting with enormous futuristic sets.

• 1937: Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs becomes the first feature length animated film to be released in theaters, and ushers in a new age of animated films.

• 1939: The first Academy Award for effects is awarded. Nominees include the wizard of oz and gone with the wind

• 1950’s: the motion control rig is developed, as well as the first interactive computer graphics, created by the US military. In 1956, “The Ten Commandments” became the first film to ever use blue screen.

• 1960’s: While the effects industry didn’t make many technical advancements, computer graphics made many developments during this decade. In 1968 the world's first CG company, Evans and Sutherland was created.

• 1970’s: Bezier Curves as well as many other computer graphic advancements, including texture mapping were created. In 1975 George Lucas created Industrial Light and Magic (ILM). During the 70’s many films started using CG, including Superman, Alien, and Star Trek: the motion picture.

• 1980’s: In 1982 ILM created the first ever entirely CG image for Star Trek the Wrath of Khan.

• 1990’s - today: CG imagery became more and more common in film, as the tech became cheaper, with most large budget films using at least some CGI today. One of the latest high profile breakthroughs in VFX came in 2019, when “the Mandalorian” used LED screens instead of green screens for better lighting. This technique uses a large LED wall, running unreal engine, allowing for a much larger amount of shots to be filmed in camera.d

After learning about the history of my topic, I then turned towards learning more about it's future, spending multiple hours reading news articles, and watching experts talk about, where the VFX industry is heading within the next few decades. Following this, I then formed ten quick hypothesizes, linking these various sources together, in order to create some possible scenarios about what the future of the industry may look like (with some being more outlandish then others). My hypothesizes were:

1. CGI will continue to become cheaper and more accessible, meaning one day even student films could have “movie” level quality CGI.

2. People will eventually become fed up with CGI and want more practical effects in film

3. One day all big budget films will be shot on a LED screen, vastly cutting down production costs

4. Actors will one day be entirely replaced by lifelike CGI models in movies

5. Stuntmen will one day be unnecessary, and replaced entirely by CGI

6. De-aging effects will continue to improve, so much so that an actors age will no longer matter in the casting process

7. Fully CGI films will eventually become fully lifelike

8. Dead actors will be resurrected by CGI, actors will no longer own their own likeness

9. Rendering times on CGI films will continue to become shorter, with eventually top quality CGI graphics and lighting becoming real time.

10. The general public will never understand how much work goes into VFX, and how many hours each shot takes.

For the final part of this phase, I then researched 30 experts (and their contact info), who I could then ask to interview about the future of VFX and expand my views on this topic. These experts ranged from VFX artists, to world class filmmakers, and were chosen based on a number of factors, including: time spent working in the industry, as well as what projects they had worked on. The 30 experts I ended up choosing were:

(The 30 experts I ended up choosing to interview)

After choosing the 30 experts, I drafted up a quick email explaining my situation, and sent it to as many of the experts as I could (20 out of 30) after this I moved onto phase 2.

The email that I sent to all of the experts was:

Dear (Insert name here)

My name is Ben Boyd, a 19 year old, first year student currently studying a Bachelor of Design at Auckland University, New Zealand.

I am writing this email to ask for a chance to interview you about the future of the VFX industry for my University project.

You and your team's work in the VFX field has significantly influenced and inspired me. As I am currently doing a research project on the future of the VFX industry, I would love nothing more then the opportunity to interview either yourself, or your team that I respect so much, and have a conversation about where you believe this industry is heading.

I am happy to use Zoom, Skype, Google Hangouts or any other video communications app you would like to use. The overall interview time would be around 20 -30mins, and I am happy to align my schedule with any time you are available.

All the best,

Ben

This email was used as a template, and was then personalized to each expert specifically, with additional details being included based upon the expert's background, interests, and history of accepting similar requests.

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Phase 2: Interview and insight gathering

For weeks 4 - 5 of this project, I primarily focused on conducting my interviews, as well as further researching on what my specific insight might be. Unfortunately the majority of people who I sent emails out to did not respond, and for the ones that did, only about half responded to my follow up email as well. By the end of week 4, I only had two confirmed experts who were willing to be interviewed on video, with a third who was only interested in answering my questions in writing. To make matters worse, the Covid-19 lock down also caused issues for one of my experts, causing him to have to delay the interview to after this projects hand in date (September 8)

(Spread sheet showing my experts and whether I had/could contact them or not)

I primarily used email to contact my experts, however when this wasn't available/couldn't be found online, I did use other means, including both Twitter and Reddit's private messaging feature.

(Reddit's private message feature, which I used to contact Epic Games president Tim Sweeney. He did not respond)

By the end of week 5, the only interview I had completed was with Anselm Von Seherr-Thoss. a veteran VFX artist who has worked on a multitude of projects including: Avatar, Star Trek: Into Darkness, and NCIS: New Orleans. I had been following Anselm for quite some time, and had first become aware of him after reading about his work on a Black Eyed Peas music video, around six years ago. Unfortunately as Anselm currently lives in New Orleans and is almost constantly busy, the only available time for the interview was at four am on a Friday (12pm CST), while I prepared a number of questions for the interview, I did also ask multiple others based on his responses.

My prepared questions were:

1. - How did you first become interested in VFX work?

2. - What was working in VFX like when you first started?

3. - What upcoming technology or new products are you most excited about?

4. - What has been the most enjoyable work that you have been involved in?

5. - Where do you see VFX in 5 or 10 years time?

6. - If you could do it all again, would you concentrate or specialize in anything different?

7. - What specialties do you think will be the most sought after in the next few years?

8. - What's your advice for someone wishing to start out in VFX?

9. - Do you believe practical effects will still have a place in this future?

The interview was conducted over Skype, and was recorded with both his knowledge and consent. The overall interview time was around two hours.

After conducting more online research, (where I found out a large number of shots in Super Hero films were 100% CGI) and taking into account Anselm's responses to my questions. I then came up with three possible insights, as well as a large amount of precedence as to why these insights were realistic. These three insights were:

1. The addition of dead actors brought back to life by CGI in films will become increasingly commonplace, especially in franchise films. With actors signing onto a number of films, their appearance can and will be used forever. This will be extremely commonplace, especially among multi-year/multi-film spanning franchises e.g. the marvel universe, Star Wars etc by 2050. This is already occurring today e.g. Rogue One. By 2070 all major actors in blockbuster movies will be CGI for the majority of their on screen appearance.

2. By 2050 a film's VFX will be able to be changed in real time, allowing the artists/director to constantly change and iterate on a design. With streaming services becoming more popular, this could also lead to movies being “patched” like a video game when they have been released. E.g. Cats. This could also mean that a movie's story line could be changed on the fly. More films could receive the “Star Wars Special edition treatment, where objects can be added or taken away from shots.

3. Computers will be able to automatically isolate and replace a specific object/person in the footage removing the need for green screens, as well as the number of takes needed to get the final shot, shortening filming times

After listing out the positives and negatives, as well as debating which one was the most interesting, I then chose (out of the three) insights my final insight, which was:

By 2070 all major actors in blockbuster movies will be CGI

After this, I then moved onto phase 3.

(From research I discovered that this scene in Thor: Ragnarok was 100% CGI, the actors face was recreated in CG (Marshall, D. 2018))

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Phase 3: Communicate

For week 6 of this project, I focused on creating a 3 minute video, 500 word article, and a blog post documenting my progress.

Starting with the article, this took the longest amount of time to create, and went through hundreds of rewrites. While I was initially worried about hitting the 300 word minimum, once I started writing however, I found that I had the opposite problem, with my initial draft going over the maximum 500 word count and ending up at around 1200 words. Due to this time limit, I ended up having to cut most of my information regarding the 3D scanning process, as well as why the target date is 2070, instead leaving the target date as "sometime in the future" This slightly hurt my overall insight, but was needed if I wanted to get my article below the word limit.

(My finished article, with the guides turned on)

The references in my article are:

1. Spry.J.(2018,January 10) Firsts: The first all CGI character made before Pixar became Pixar. SYFY. https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/firsts-the-first-all-cgi-character-made-before-pixar-became-pixar

2. Wilson.J.(2019,July 1) Turns out 96% of Avengers Infinity War was CGI .Direct Expose. https://www.directexpose.com/avengers-infinity-war-cgi/

3. Winik.E.(2018,October 16) Actors are digitally preserving themselves to continue their careers beyond the grave. MIT technology review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/10/16/139747/actors-are-digitally-preserving-themselves-to-continue-their-careers-beyond-the-grave/

4. Cordor.J.(2019,August 19) Will CGI replace all actors in the future? Esquire Magazine. https://www.esquireme.com/content/37409-is-cgi-going-to-replace-all-actors-in-the-future-an-investigation

5. Everett.L. (2014,August 15) When will CGI actors replace human ones. The Telegraph. Available from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/film/film-news/11034343/When-will-CGI-actors-replace-human-ones.html

6. Alexandria.J. (2019, November 6) James Dean, who died in 1955, just landed a new movie role, thanks to CGI. The Verge. https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/6/20951485/james-dean-new-movie-cgi-recreation-finding-jack

7. Wolchover.N. (2011, October 18) Why CGI humans are creepy, and what scientists are doing about it. Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/16600-cgi-humans-creepy-scientists.html

8. Kemp.L. (2019, June 8) In the age of deepfakes could virtual actors put humans out of business? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/jul/03/in-the-age-of-deepfakes-could-virtual-actors-put-humans-out-of-business

My video roughly took around three hours to create, and mainly involved importing audio and video into Adobe Premier Pro, slicing it up (using the slicing tool) and adding various quotes from researchers/knowledgeable people in the industry.

(The Adobe Premier Pro workspace)

As this was my first time using the software, working my way around Adobe Premier Pro was initially challenging.

(My project close to completion - before subtitles)

The hardest part of creating the video came close to the end, when I started adding subtitles. Initially these did not show up in the program sequence, and I spent almost a full hour searching the internet for reasons why. Luckily the problem seemed to fix itself after the video was exported, so I am still unsure as to what went wrong.

(My video being exported)

Rendering my video was incredibly easy, and only took around 20 mins

The references for the footage used in my video are (in order of appearance):

1. GamerHubTV.(2018,November 12) Weta Digital Talks Replacing Dead Actors with CGI Effects .YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlvTgbd2vBA&ab_channel=GamerHubTV

2. Feige.K. (Producer), & Waititi.T. (Director). (2017,October 10). Thor Ragnarok. USA: Walt Disney Motion Pictures.

3. Weta Digital(2018,May 1) Furious 7 VFX | Breakdown - Brian O'Conner | Weta Digital. Youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye7arp5IrAg&ab_channel=WetaDigital

4. Folman.A. (Producer), & Folman.A. (Director). (2013,July 3). The Congress. France: ‎Pandora Filmproduktion

5. Kennedy.K. (Producer), & Edwards.G. (Director). (2016,December 10). Rouge One: A Star Wars Story. USA: Walt Disney Motion Pictures

6. CNN Buissness.(2017,March 24) Rogue One' director on CGI actor controversy.YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GM5iagkZmo&ab_channel=CNNBusiness

7. Feige.K. (Producer), & Russo.J. & Russo.A. (Directors). (2019,April 10). Avengers: Endgame. USA: Walt Disney Motion Pictures

8. Marvel Entertainment.(2018,November 12) Marvel Studios’ Avengers: Endgame — Making the Cap vs. Cap fight! YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=MdqY1VJ2Eeo&ab_channel=MarvelEntertainment

My Blog was primarily written on the last day of the assessment.

Blog references:

1. Marshall, D. (2018, March 2) Thor Ragnarok: Marvel cinematic universe retrospective. Panic In The Skies. http://www.panicintheskies.co.uk/thor-ragnarok-marvel-cinematic-universe-retrospective/